NK Varazdin 0-1 Dinamo Zagreb — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
7.78
Draw
25%
4.62
Away
54%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.03
Over 2.5
45%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.09
No
54%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
3.79
2-3 Goals
42%
1.83
4-5 Goals
19%
3.22
6+ Goals
9%
11.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.79 — our 30% vs market 21.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
23%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
24%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
10%
+10.7pp
25%
Draw
19%
+5.9pp
54%
Away Win
71%
-16.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
45%
+9.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
55%
-9.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.2pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb EU Bookmakers 75%
+7% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -4%
0.73/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/0.68
+6% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +7%
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
218 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 434 · 83%
13.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.3
12.2 Crosses 17.5
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NK Varazdin
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.62 xG 1.88
41% Ball Possession 59%
7 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
280 Passes 439
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
10 Box Touches 32
9 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
18.02.2024 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 1-0 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
05.11.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-1 HT 0-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
26.04.2023 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 2-0 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
19.02.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-3 HT 0-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
16.10.2022 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 3-1 HT 0-1 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
05.08.2022 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-1 HT 0-1 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NK Varazdin
0-1
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb
0.73 xG 0.60
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 7
195 Passes 367
70% Pass Accuracy 81%
8 Box Touches 36
8 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dinamo Zagreb edged past NK Varazdin 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Dinamo Zagreb as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, NK Varazdin had 38% of the ball to Dinamo Zagreb's 62%, shots finished 9-15, expected goals 0.73 to 0.60.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Zagreb led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for NK Varazdin and 1.83 for Dinamo Zagreb.

What was the final score of NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb?

NK Varazdin 0-1 Dinamo Zagreb in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dinamo Zagreb win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split NK Varazdin 21%, draw 25%, Dinamo Zagreb 54%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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