UPDF 2-1 Mbarara City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 6 Nov 2024

📅06/11/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.27
Draw
29%
2.94
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.44
Over 2.5
37%
2.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.27
No
56%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
15%
X/X
16%
2/1
4%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
40%
-1.6pp
29%
Draw
31%
-1.8pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+3.3pp
63%
Under 2.5
66%
-2.3pp
37%
Over 2.5
34%
+2.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
40%
+4.2pp
56%
BTTS No
60%
-4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UPDF EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Mbarara City EU Bookmakers 32%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -31% / -31%
0.79/0.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/0.91
-29% / +85% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +8%
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
262 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UPDF
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Mbarara City
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
26.04.2024 Mbarara City Mbarara City 0-0 HT 0-0 UPDF UPDF UGA
06.11.2021 UPDF UPDF 1-0 HT 0-0 Mbarara City Mbarara City UGA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UPDF
2-1
AWAY Mbarara City
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH UPDF vs Mbarara City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UPDF squeezed past Mbarara City 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 29% / 32% — and on the day UPDF made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, UPDF had 43% of the ball to Mbarara City's 57%, shots finished 12-6.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, UPDF had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for UPDF and 0.00 for Mbarara City.

What was the final score of UPDF vs Mbarara City?

UPDF 2-1 Mbarara City in the Uganda - Premier League on 06/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UPDF vs Mbarara City?

Before kick-off our model rated a UPDF win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split UPDF 39%, draw 29%, Mbarara City 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (UPDF) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (UPDF) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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