Brisbane Roar 1-4 Melbourne City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 6 Dec 2024

Brisbane Roar
1-4 HT 0-2
Melbourne City
📅06/12/2024 · 🕒11:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2024/2025

Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.84
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
45%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.33
Over 2.5
60%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.46
No
44%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.03
2-3 Goals
37%
1.97
4-5 Goals
28%
2.8
6+ Goals
14%
7.41
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.78
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
25.5
1/X
10%
14.25
X/1
9%
7.76
X/2
19%
5.79
X/X
6%
6.24
2/1
8%
32.5
2/2
17%
3.16
2/X
7%
14.05
Value flag · 1/2 at 25.5 — our 9% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
32%
+0.4pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.6pp
45%
Away Win
44%
+1.2pp
40%
Under 2.5
39%
+1.2pp
60%
Over 2.5
61%
-1.2pp
56%
BTTS Yes
64%
-7.8pp
44%
BTTS No
36%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Brisbane Roar v Melbourne City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brisbane Roar EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne City EU Bookmakers 48%
-7% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +1%
1.49/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.71/1.51
+3% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -9%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
335 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 445 · 82%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.5
17.1 Crosses 18.4
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.9

Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brisbane Roar
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Melbourne City
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.25 xG 1.71
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
352 Passes 517
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
20 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.02.2024 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 5-1 HT 4-0 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
28.12.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 8-1 HT 3-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
12.03.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 2-1 HT 1-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
21.01.2023 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 0-0 HT 0-0 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
14.10.2022 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 0-2 HT 0-2 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
23.03.2022 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 1-2 HT 1-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS

Brisbane Roar 1-4 Melbourne City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brisbane Roar
1-4
AWAY Melbourne City
1.52 xG 1.19
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 1
424 Passes 414
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
37 Box Touches 15
11 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne City ran out comfortable winners over Brisbane Roar 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Melbourne City as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Brisbane Roar had 50% of the ball to Melbourne City's 50%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 1.52 to 1.19.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne City led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Brisbane Roar and 2.50 for Melbourne City.

What was the final score of Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne City?

Brisbane Roar 1-4 Melbourne City in the Australia - A-League on 06/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Melbourne City win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Brisbane Roar 32%, draw 23%, Melbourne City 45%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Melbourne City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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