Brisbane Roar 5-1 Melbourne City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 10 Feb 2024

Brisbane Roar
5-1 HT 4-0
Melbourne City
📅10/02/2024 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.57
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
37%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.59
Over 2.5
52%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.41
No
47%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.83
2-3 Goals
41%
2.03
4-5 Goals
24%
2.56
6+ Goals
13%
5.81
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.72
1/2
7%
22.05
1/X
5%
12.1
X/1
11%
6.48
X/2
9%
5.57
X/X
12%
5.82
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
25.0
2/2
21%
3.02
2/X
8%
12.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.0 — our 7% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
35%
+3.4pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.5pp
37%
Away Win
40%
-3.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
35%
+13.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
65%
-13.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
67%
-13.6pp
47%
BTTS No
33%
+13.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Brisbane Roar v Melbourne City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brisbane Roar EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne City EU Bookmakers 45%
-4% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -8%
1.51/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.64/1.60
-21% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -10%
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
375 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 385 · 81%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.8
17.3 Crosses 18.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1

Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brisbane Roar
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Melbourne City
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.10 xG 1.93
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
323 Passes 528
79% Pass Accuracy 86%
19 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.12.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 8-1 HT 3-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
12.03.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 2-1 HT 1-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
21.01.2023 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 0-0 HT 0-0 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
14.10.2022 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 0-2 HT 0-2 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
23.03.2022 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 1-2 HT 1-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
19.11.2021 Melbourne City Melbourne City 2-1 HT 2-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS

Brisbane Roar 5-1 Melbourne City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brisbane Roar
5-1
AWAY Melbourne City
2.25 xG 0.85
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 14
9 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 8
523 Passes 448
88% Pass Accuracy 89%
29 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brisbane Roar ran out comfortable winners over Melbourne City 5-1. Half-time: 4-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 25% / 37%) promised a tight game; Brisbane Roar found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Brisbane Roar had 53% of the ball to Melbourne City's 47%, shots finished 16-14, expected goals 2.25 to 0.85.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne City led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Brisbane Roar and 2.67 for Melbourne City.

What was the final score of Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne City?

Brisbane Roar 5-1 Melbourne City in the Australia - A-League on 10/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brisbane Roar win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Brisbane Roar 38%, draw 25%, Melbourne City 37%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Brisbane Roar), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Brisbane Roar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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