Melbourne Victory vs Macarthur Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Melbourne Victory v Macarthur — Team-Based Signals
Melbourne Victory vs Macarthur Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 1-0
Melbourne Victory
AVUS
2-1
HT 1-0
Macarthur
AVUS
0-1
HT 0-0
Melbourne Victory
AVUS
1-4
HT 0-1
Melbourne Victory
AVUS
3-1
HT 2-0
Macarthur
AVUS
3-1
HT 2-0
Melbourne Victory
AVUS
Melbourne Victory 0-1 Macarthur — Actual Match Statistics
Macarthur edged past Melbourne Victory 1-0 away from home.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Melbourne Victory at 62% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Melbourne Victory had 65% of the ball to Macarthur's 35%, shots finished 30-6, expected goals 2.58 to 1.13 — the balance of chances actually favoured Melbourne Victory.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne Victory had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Melbourne Victory and 1.17 for Macarthur.
What was the final score of Melbourne Victory vs Macarthur?
Melbourne Victory 0-1 Macarthur in the Australia - A-League on 10/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Melbourne Victory vs Macarthur?
Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne Victory win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Melbourne Victory 62%, draw 19%, Macarthur 19%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.