Derby County vs Leicester City Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Derby County v Leicester City — Team-Based Signals
Derby County vs Leicester City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-1
HT 0-0
Derby County
FAK
2-2
HT 2-1
Leicester City
FAK
4-1
HT 1-0
Derby County
İNCL
2-1
HT 0-1
Derby County
İNLK
0-1
HT 0-1
Leicester City
İNCL
2-1
HT 2-0
Leicester City
İNCL
Derby County 1-3 Leicester City — Actual Match Statistics
Leicester City beat Derby County 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3.
We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 27% / 35% — and on the day Leicester City made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.
On the day, Derby County had 61% of the ball to Leicester City's 39%, shots finished 18-5, expected goals 1.43 to 1.33.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leicester City led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Derby County and 2.17 for Leicester City.
What was the final score of Derby County vs Leicester City?
Derby County 1-3 Leicester City in the England - Championship on 06/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Derby County vs Leicester City?
Before kick-off our model rated a Derby County win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Derby County 38%, draw 27%, Leicester City 35%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Derby County) went the other way.