Famalicao 2-2 Chaves — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 7 Jan 2024

📅07/01/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.64
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
29%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.68
Over 2.5
49%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.06
No
49%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.75
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
4.2
6+ Goals
10%
20.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.14
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
6%
16.0
X/1
10%
3.67
X/2
14%
10.1
X/X
13%
4.52
2/1
7%
26.5
2/2
11%
8.7
2/X
8%
17.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
57%
-14.4pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.9pp
29%
Away Win
18%
+11.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
56%
-4.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
44%
+4.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
44%
+7.0pp
49%
BTTS No
56%
-7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Famalicao EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Chaves EU Bookmakers 21%
-6% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -7%
1.59/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.66
-18% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -17%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
347 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 74%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
24.4 Crosses 20.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Famalicao
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Chaves
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.12 xG 1.77
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
324 Passes 330
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 22
22 Crosses 25
4 Yellow Cards 4
08.05.2023 Famalicao Famalicao 1-2 HT 0-0 Chaves Chaves POR
30.12.2022 Chaves Chaves 0-2 HT 0-1 Famalicao Famalicao POR
22.08.2015 Chaves Chaves 0-0 HT 0-0 Famalicao Famalicao POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Famalicao
2-2
AWAY Chaves
1.80 xG 2.13
56% Ball Possession 44%
19 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 8
387 Passes 256
87% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 10
29 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Famalicao vs Chaves
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Famalicao and Chaves shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Famalicao at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Famalicao had 56% of the ball to Chaves's 44%, shots finished 19-9, expected goals 1.80 to 2.13.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Famalicao and 0.67 for Chaves.

What was the final score of Famalicao vs Chaves?

Famalicao 2-2 Chaves in the Portugal - Premier League on 07/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Famalicao vs Chaves?

Before kick-off our model rated a Famalicao win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Famalicao 43%, draw 28%, Chaves 29%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Famalicao), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Famalicao) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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