Santa Lucia 3-3 Mgarr United FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Malta - FA Cup, 7 Feb 2024

Santa Lucia
3-3 HT 0-1
Mgarr United FC
📅07/02/2024 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 4-0 ✗
Malta - FA Cup – 2023/2024

Santa Lucia vs Mgarr United FC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.27
Draw
21%
5.28
Away
15%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.38
Over 2.5
55%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.06
No
53%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
41%
1/2
3%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
6%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
6%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
75%
-10.8pp
21%
Draw
16%
+4.9pp
15%
Away Win
9%
+5.9pp
45%
Under 2.5
38%
+6.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
62%
-6.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.5pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Santa Lucia v Mgarr United FC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santa Lucia EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Mgarr United FC EU Bookmakers 11%
+21% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-32% / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
423 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 210 · 69%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –
POST-MATCH Santa Lucia vs Mgarr United FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santa Lucia and Mgarr United FC couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 0-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Santa Lucia carried 64% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

What was the final score of Santa Lucia vs Mgarr United FC?

Santa Lucia 3-3 Mgarr United FC in the Malta - FA Cup on 07/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santa Lucia vs Mgarr United FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Santa Lucia win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Santa Lucia 64%, draw 21%, Mgarr United FC 15%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Santa Lucia), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Santa Lucia) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MLTAK More Malta - FA Cup
7 Feb 2024
20:00 Gzira United vs Hibernians FC Analysis →
22:30 Sliema Wanderers vs Balzan FC Analysis →