Botafogo 2-1 Bragantino — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 7 Mar 2024

📅07/03/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.96
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
21%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.52
Over 2.5
38%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.13
No
62%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2.44
2-3 Goals
36%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
4.91
6+ Goals
8%
28.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
21%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ BTTS No ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
47%
+3.8pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.1pp
22%
Away Win
24%
-2.7pp
62%
Under 2.5
62%
+0.4pp
38%
Over 2.5
38%
-0.4pp
38%
BTTS Yes
43%
-5.3pp
62%
BTTS No
57%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botafogo EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Bragantino EU Bookmakers 28%
+38% / +38% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
0.52/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.57/1.48
+11% / +115% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +91% / -33%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
335 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 77%
16.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.0
18.2 Crosses 19.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botafogo
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Bragantino
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.01 xG 1.76
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
255 Passes 363
73% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 2
12.11.2023 Bragantino 2-2 HT 1-2 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
16.07.2023 Botafogo Botafogo 2-0 HT 0-0 Bragantino BR1
27.10.2022 Botafogo Botafogo 2-1 HT 1-0 Bragantino BR1
05.07.2022 Bragantino 0-1 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
17.11.2020 Botafogo Botafogo 1-2 HT 1-1 Bragantino BR1
13.08.2020 Bragantino 1-1 HT 1-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botafogo
2-1
AWAY Bragantino
0.70 xG 0.29
47% Ball Possession 53%
7 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 0
229 Passes 289
71% Pass Accuracy 77%
10 Box Touches 14
10 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Botafogo vs Bragantino
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botafogo nicked a narrow win over Bragantino 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Botafogo as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Botafogo had 47% of the ball to Bragantino's 53%, shots finished 7-8, expected goals 0.70 to 0.29.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Botafogo had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Botafogo and 1.00 for Bragantino.

What was the final score of Botafogo vs Bragantino?

Botafogo 2-1 Bragantino in the Copa Libertadores on 07/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botafogo vs Bragantino?

Before kick-off our model rated a Botafogo win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Botafogo 51%, draw 28%, Bragantino 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Botafogo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Botafogo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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