Keflavik 5-4 Leiknir Reykjavik — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iceland - League Cup, 7 Mar 2025

📅07/03/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.53
Draw
21%
4.49
Away
25%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
33%
Over 2.5
67%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
64%
1.35
No
36%
2.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
15%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
19%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
8%
X/X
8%
2/1
11%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
61%
-7.2pp
21%
Draw
19%
+2.0pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+5.3pp
64%
BTTS Yes
70%
-6.3pp
36%
BTTS No
30%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Keflavik EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Leiknir Reykjavik EU Bookmakers 23%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +53% / +53%
3.03/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.76/0.08
+17% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / +150%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
420 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Keflavik
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Leiknir Reykjavik
3.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
14.08.2024 Leiknir Reykjavik Leiknir Reykjavik 0-0 HT 0-0 Keflavik Keflavik İZL1
05.06.2024 Keflavik Keflavik 5-0 HT 5-0 Leiknir Reykjavik Leiknir Reykjavik İZL1
22.10.2022 Leiknir Reykjavik Leiknir Reykjavik 1-7 HT 0-3 Keflavik Keflavik İZL
08.08.2022 Leiknir Reykjavik Leiknir Reykjavik 1-2 HT 0-1 Keflavik Keflavik İZL
12.05.2022 Keflavik Keflavik 3-0 HT 1-0 Leiknir Reykjavik Leiknir Reykjavik İZL
09.02.2022 Keflavik Keflavik 2-3 HT 2-1 Leiknir Reykjavik Leiknir Reykjavik İZLK
POST-MATCH Keflavik vs Leiknir Reykjavik
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Keflavik squeezed past Leiknir Reykjavik 5-4. 9 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Keflavik as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 5-4 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (67%), both teams to score (64%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Keflavik had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.17 goals for Keflavik and 0.83 for Leiknir Reykjavik.

What was the final score of Keflavik vs Leiknir Reykjavik?

Keflavik 5-4 Leiknir Reykjavik in the Iceland - League Cup on 07/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Keflavik vs Leiknir Reykjavik?

Before kick-off our model rated a Keflavik win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Keflavik 54%, draw 21%, Leiknir Reykjavik 25%. The final score 5-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Keflavik), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Keflavik) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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