URA 2-1 UPDF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 7 Mar 2025

URA
2-1 HT 1-0
UPDF
📅07/03/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.53
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
26%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.96
No
57%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
3%
1/X
8%
X/1
23%
X/2
11%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
61%
-10.0pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.6pp
26%
Away Win
16%
+9.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.7pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME URA EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY UPDF EU Bookmakers 20%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
1.28/0.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.55/1.76
-30% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -19%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
397 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME URA
1W-1D-0L
AWAY UPDF
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
47% Ball Possession 53%
4 Total Shots 7
1 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 0
24.10.2024 UPDF UPDF 0-0 HT 0-0 URA URA UGA
29.10.2021 URA URA 3-1 HT 0-1 UPDF UPDF UGA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME URA
2-1
AWAY UPDF
34% Ball Possession 66%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH URA vs UPDF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

URA squeezed past UPDF 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had URA as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, URA had 34% of the ball to UPDF's 66%, shots finished 10-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, URA had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for URA and 0.50 for UPDF.

What was the final score of URA vs UPDF?

URA 2-1 UPDF in the Uganda - Premier League on 07/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for URA vs UPDF?

Before kick-off our model rated a URA win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split URA 51%, draw 23%, UPDF 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (URA) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (URA) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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