Sturt Lions 4-3 West Adelaide — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 7 Mar 2026

Sturt Lions
4-3 HT 3-0
West Adelaide
📅07/03/2026 · 🕒08:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Australia - National Premier League – 2026

Sturt Lions vs West Adelaide Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.05
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
28%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.18
Over 2.5
50%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.53
No
44%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
12%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
45%
-1.1pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.3pp
28%
Away Win
30%
-1.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
42%
+7.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
58%
-7.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
61%
-5.4pp
44%
BTTS No
39%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sturt Lions v West Adelaide — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sturt Lions EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY West Adelaide EU Bookmakers 33%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -30% / -30%
1.94/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.54/2.53
+7% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -64% / -33%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
304 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.5

Sturt Lions vs West Adelaide Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sturt Lions
1W-1D-0L
AWAY West Adelaide
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
27.05.2023 West Adelaide 1-1 HT 0-0 Sturt Lions Sturt Lions AVNPL
04.03.2023 Sturt Lions Sturt Lions 1-0 HT 1-0 West Adelaide AVNPL
POST-MATCH Sturt Lions vs West Adelaide
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturt Lions nicked a narrow win over West Adelaide 4-3. Half-time: 3-0. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sturt Lions as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Sturt Lions had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sturt Lions and 0.50 for West Adelaide.

What was the final score of Sturt Lions vs West Adelaide?

Sturt Lions 4-3 West Adelaide in the Australia - National Premier League on 07/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sturt Lions vs West Adelaide?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sturt Lions win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Sturt Lions 44%, draw 28%, West Adelaide 28%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sturt Lions), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sturt Lions) ✓ BTTS Yes
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