Wolfsburg 1-3 Mönchengladbach — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 7 Apr 2024

Wolfsburg
1-3 HT 1-0
Mönchengladbach
📅07/04/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Wolfsburg vs Mönchengladbach Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.92
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.15
Over 2.5
58%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.6
No
48%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.16
2-3 Goals
38%
1.86
4-5 Goals
28%
3.04
6+ Goals
12%
9.52
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.62
1/2 EV+ ✓
6%
33.5
1/X
8%
13.4
X/1
17%
4.59
X/2
10%
7.36
X/X
8%
5.4
2/1
6%
22.3
2/2
14%
5.03
2/X
8%
13.7
Value flag · 1/2 at 33.5 — our 6% vs market 1.2%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-2.2pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.3pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+2.6pp
42%
Under 2.5
43%
-0.5pp
58%
Over 2.5
57%
+0.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.0pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Wolfsburg v Mönchengladbach — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wolfsburg EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Mönchengladbach EU Bookmakers 31%
-8% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +1%
1.57/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/1.93
-11% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -13%
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
316 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 76%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
20.9 Crosses 13.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Wolfsburg vs Mönchengladbach Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wolfsburg
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Mönchengladbach
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.30 xG 1.76
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 7
400 Passes 399
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
26 Box Touches 27
23 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.12.2023 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 1-0 HT 0-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AFK
10.11.2023 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 4-0 HT 2-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
09.04.2023 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 2-0 HT 1-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
15.10.2022 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 2-2 HT 1-1 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
26.02.2022 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 2-2 HT 1-2 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
02.10.2021 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 1-3 HT 1-2 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1

Wolfsburg 1-3 Mönchengladbach — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wolfsburg
1-3
AWAY Mönchengladbach
1.21 xG 1.09
61% Ball Possession 39%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
615 Passes 349
90% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Wolfsburg vs Mönchengladbach
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mönchengladbach saw off Wolfsburg 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Wolfsburg at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Wolfsburg had 61% of the ball to Mönchengladbach's 39%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 1.21 to 1.09.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mönchengladbach led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Wolfsburg and 2.33 for Mönchengladbach.

What was the final score of Wolfsburg vs Mönchengladbach?

Wolfsburg 1-3 Mönchengladbach in the Germany - Bundesliga on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wolfsburg vs Mönchengladbach?

Before kick-off our model rated a Wolfsburg win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Wolfsburg 46%, draw 24%, Mönchengladbach 30%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Wolfsburg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Wolfsburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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