Hoffenheim 3-1 Augsburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 7 Apr 2024

📅07/04/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
36%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.63
Over 2.5
56%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.39
No
42%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
6.33
2-3 Goals
40%
2.11
4-5 Goals
25%
2.53
6+ Goals
14%
5.41
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.01
1/2
8%
24.85
1/X
6%
12.55
X/1
12%
5.62
X/2
11%
6.5
X/X
11%
6.25
2/1
9%
21.85
2/2
17%
3.68
2/X
9%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-4.0pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.0pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+2.0pp
44%
Under 2.5
34%
+9.4pp
56%
Over 2.5
66%
-9.4pp
58%
BTTS Yes
68%
-9.3pp
42%
BTTS No
32%
+9.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hoffenheim EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Augsburg EU Bookmakers 38%
-3% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +8%
1.75/1.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.20
+19% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +10%
48% Ball Possession 52%
17 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
297 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 76%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
18.8 Crosses 20.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hoffenheim
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Augsburg
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.88 xG 0.94
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
384 Passes 262
79% Pass Accuracy 73%
25 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
06.01.2024 Augsburg Augsburg 1-0 HT 1-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim HAZ
11.11.2023 Augsburg Augsburg 1-1 HT 0-1 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
17.02.2023 Augsburg Augsburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
27.08.2022 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 1-0 HT 1-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
08.01.2022 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 3-1 HT 2-1 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
14.08.2021 Augsburg Augsburg 0-4 HT 0-1 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hoffenheim
3-1
AWAY Augsburg
1.79 xG 1.29
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 7
11 Corners 6
395 Passes 319
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 29
21 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hoffenheim vs Augsburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hoffenheim got the better of Augsburg 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 26% / 36% — and on the day Hoffenheim made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Hoffenheim had 55% of the ball to Augsburg's 45%, shots finished 18-15, expected goals 1.79 to 1.29.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hoffenheim had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Hoffenheim and 0.67 for Augsburg.

What was the final score of Hoffenheim vs Augsburg?

Hoffenheim 3-1 Augsburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hoffenheim vs Augsburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hoffenheim win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Hoffenheim 38%, draw 26%, Augsburg 36%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hoffenheim), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hoffenheim) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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