Augsburg 1-0 Hoffenheim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 6 Jan 2024

Augsburg
1-0 HT 1-0
Hoffenheim
📅06/01/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Friendlies – 2023/2024

Augsburg vs Hoffenheim Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.47
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
36%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.61
Over 2.5
57%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.41
No
40%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
5.61
2-3 Goals
39%
2.01
4-5 Goals
28%
2.62
6+ Goals
14%
6.17
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.55
1/2
6%
23.0
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
12.1
X/1
11%
6.21
X/2
9%
5.79
X/X
8%
5.74
2/1
6%
24.7
2/2
20%
3.22
2/X
10%
12.05
Value flag · 1/X at 12.1 — our 10% vs market 5.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
37%
+0.8pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.9pp
36%
Away Win
39%
-2.6pp
43%
Under 2.5
35%
+8.8pp
57%
Over 2.5
65%
-8.8pp
60%
BTTS Yes
67%
-6.3pp
40%
BTTS No
33%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Augsburg v Hoffenheim — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Augsburg EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Hoffenheim EU Bookmakers 43%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
2.03/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.21/2.78
+48% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +59% / -53%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
335 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 1.0

Augsburg vs Hoffenheim Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Augsburg
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Hoffenheim
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.89 xG 1.72
42% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
256 Passes 417
73% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 27
16 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.11.2023 Augsburg Augsburg 1-1 HT 0-1 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
17.02.2023 Augsburg Augsburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
27.08.2022 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 1-0 HT 1-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
08.01.2022 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 3-1 HT 2-1 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
14.08.2021 Augsburg Augsburg 0-4 HT 0-1 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
03.04.2021 Augsburg Augsburg 2-1 HT 2-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1

Augsburg 1-0 Hoffenheim — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Augsburg
1-0
AWAY Hoffenheim
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Augsburg vs Hoffenheim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Augsburg squeezed past Hoffenheim 1-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 27% / 36%) promised a tight game; Augsburg found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Augsburg had 49% of the ball to Hoffenheim's 51%, shots finished 12-15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hoffenheim led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Augsburg and 1.67 for Hoffenheim.

What was the final score of Augsburg vs Hoffenheim?

Augsburg 1-0 Hoffenheim in the Friendlies on 06/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Augsburg vs Hoffenheim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Augsburg win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Augsburg 37%, draw 27%, Hoffenheim 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Augsburg) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Augsburg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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