Salzburg 1-1 Rapid Wien — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 7 Apr 2024

📅07/04/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.75
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
28%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.97
Over 2.5
49%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.68
2-3 Goals
43%
1.82
4-5 Goals
21%
3.28
6+ Goals
11%
11.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.68 — our 25% vs market 21.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.22
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.9
X/1
16%
4.13
X/2
10%
9.43
X/X
15%
5.09
2/1
8%
23.15
2/2
13%
7.07
2/X
7%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
54%
-9.5pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.4pp
28%
Away Win
21%
+7.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.1pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Salzburg EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Rapid Wien EU Bookmakers 24%
+4% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -4%
1.98/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.66
-6% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +0%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
304 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 73%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
16.6 Crosses 17.8
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Salzburg
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Rapid Wien
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.81 xG 1.14
52% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
297 Passes 248
75% Pass Accuracy 69%
22 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
09.12.2023 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien 0-1 HT 0-1 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
03.09.2023 Salzburg Salzburg 2-0 HT 2-0 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien AVU
07.05.2023 Salzburg Salzburg 2-1 HT 1-0 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien AVU
26.04.2023 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien 1-1 HT 1-1 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
05.03.2023 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien 2-4 HT 1-1 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
18.09.2022 Salzburg Salzburg 1-1 HT 1-1 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Salzburg
1-1
AWAY Rapid Wien
1.43 xG 1.77
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 2
316 Passes 281
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
38 Box Touches 15
33 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Salzburg vs Rapid Wien
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Salzburg and Rapid Wien shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Salzburg at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Salzburg had 52% of the ball to Rapid Wien's 48%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 1.43 to 1.77.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Salzburg had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Salzburg and 0.83 for Rapid Wien.

What was the final score of Salzburg vs Rapid Wien?

Salzburg 1-1 Rapid Wien in the Austria - Bundesliga on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Salzburg vs Rapid Wien?

Before kick-off our model rated a Salzburg win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Salzburg 44%, draw 28%, Rapid Wien 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Salzburg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Salzburg) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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