Sturm Graz 1-0 LASK Linz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 7 Apr 2024

📅07/04/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.92
Draw
34%
3.28
Away
25%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.74
Over 2.5
44%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
35%
2.86
2-3 Goals
36%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.07
6+ Goals
8%
19.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 35% vs market 29.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.74
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
10%
14.0
X/1
18%
4.3
X/2
9%
7.28
X/X
15%
4.35
2/1
7%
26.5
2/2
8%
5.73
2/X
9%
14.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
48%
-6.3pp
34%
Draw
27%
+7.0pp
25%
Away Win
25%
-0.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
54%
+2.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
46%
-2.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-2.5pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY LASK Linz EU Bookmakers 29%
+3% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +4%
1.75/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.73
+16% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +1%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
327 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 218 · 65%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
20.9 Crosses 16.6
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sturm Graz
3W-1D-2L
AWAY LASK Linz
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.58 xG 1.71
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
240 Passes 301
70% Pass Accuracy 73%
21 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 4
05.11.2023 LASK Linz LASK Linz 3-1 HT 2-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
05.08.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-0 HT 1-0 LASK Linz LASK Linz AVU
03.06.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-0 HT 2-0 LASK Linz LASK Linz AVU
09.04.2023 LASK Linz LASK Linz 2-1 HT 0-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
06.04.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-0 HT 0-0 LASK Linz LASK Linz AUK
13.11.2022 LASK Linz LASK Linz 1-1 HT 0-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sturm Graz
1-0
AWAY LASK Linz
0.93 xG 0.61
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
218 Passes 285
67% Pass Accuracy 73%
24 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sturm Graz vs LASK Linz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz edged past LASK Linz 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sturm Graz as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Sturm Graz had 46% of the ball to LASK Linz's 54%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 0.93 to 0.61.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Sturm Graz and 1.00 for LASK Linz.

What was the final score of Sturm Graz vs LASK Linz?

Sturm Graz 1-0 LASK Linz in the Austria - Bundesliga on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sturm Graz vs LASK Linz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Sturm Graz 41%, draw 34%, LASK Linz 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sturm Graz), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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