Neftçi PFK 1-1 Sumqayıt — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 7 Apr 2024

📅07/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.96
Draw
22%
3.18
Away
31%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.68
Over 2.5
43%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.88
No
60%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
15%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
47%
-0.2pp
22%
Draw
28%
-5.9pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+6.0pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.5pp
40%
BTTS Yes
49%
-8.8pp
60%
BTTS No
51%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Neftçi PFK EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Sumqayıt EU Bookmakers 29%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +38%
1.32/0.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/0.78
+7% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +68%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
338 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Neftçi PFK
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Sumqayıt
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0 Corners 1
09.02.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 1-1 HT 1-1 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERK
04.02.2024 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 2-1 HT 2-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
31.01.2024 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 2-3 HT 0-3 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERK
11.11.2023 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 1-2 HT 1-0 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERS
02.09.2023 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 0-1 HT 0-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
08.04.2023 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 0-4 HT 0-1 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
POST-MATCH Neftçi PFK vs Sumqayıt
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Neftçi PFK and Sumqayıt couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Neftçi PFK at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (60%) missed.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Neftçi PFK had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Neftçi PFK and 1.17 for Sumqayıt.

What was the final score of Neftçi PFK vs Sumqayıt?

Neftçi PFK 1-1 Sumqayıt in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Neftçi PFK vs Sumqayıt?

Before kick-off our model rated a Neftçi PFK win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Neftçi PFK 47%, draw 22%, Sumqayıt 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Neftçi PFK), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Neftçi PFK) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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AZERS More Azerbaijan - Super League
7 Apr 2024
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