Independiente Del Valle 3-0 Libertad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 7 Apr 2024

📅07/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.33
Draw
23%
4.62
Away
19%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.03
Over 2.5
49%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.09
No
56%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
20%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
71%
-12.8pp
23%
Draw
18%
+4.4pp
19%
Away Win
11%
+8.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
45%
+5.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
55%
-5.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.0pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Libertad EU Bookmakers 14%
-8% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.71/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.67/1.63
-5% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -1%
66% Ball Possession 34%
18 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
436 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 186 · 68%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.9
18.9 Crosses 9.7
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Del Valle
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Libertad
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.17 xG 0.35
74% Ball Possession 26%
17 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 0
571 Passes 158
88% Pass Accuracy 68%
30 Box Touches 6
22 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.09.2023 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-0 HT 1-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
15.04.2023 Libertad Libertad 0-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Del Valle
3-0
AWAY Libertad
1.01 xG 0.75
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 5
388 Passes 215
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 7
8 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Independiente Del Valle vs Libertad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Del Valle swept aside Libertad 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Independiente Del Valle as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, Independiente Del Valle had 62% of the ball to Libertad's 38%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 1.01 to 0.75.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Independiente Del Valle had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Independiente Del Valle and 0.00 for Libertad.

What was the final score of Independiente Del Valle vs Libertad?

Independiente Del Valle 3-0 Libertad in the Ecuador - Premier on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Del Valle vs Libertad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Independiente Del Valle 58%, draw 23%, Libertad 19%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Del Valle), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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