Changwon City 2-1 Busan Transportation — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Kore - K3 League, 7 Apr 2024

📅07/04/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
34%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.62
Over 2.5
53%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.9
No
46%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
16%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
-0.1pp
24%
Draw
28%
-4.6pp
34%
Away Win
29%
+4.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
58%
-10.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
42%
+10.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
49%
+5.3pp
46%
BTTS No
51%
-5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Changwon City EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Busan Transportation EU Bookmakers 32%
-9% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +11%
1.14/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.35
-3% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -19%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
280 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Changwon City
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Busan Transportation
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
27.10.2023 Changwon City Changwon City 1-2 HT 1-2 Busan Transportation Busan Transportation GK3L
02.06.2023 Busan Transportation Busan Transportation 0-1 HT 0-0 Changwon City Changwon City GK3L
27.08.2022 Changwon City Changwon City 1-1 HT 1-1 Busan Transportation Busan Transportation GK3L
15.07.2022 Changwon City Changwon City 1-1 HT 1-0 Busan Transportation Busan Transportation GK3L
01.05.2022 Busan Transportation Busan Transportation 1-1 HT 0-0 Changwon City Changwon City GK3L
03.04.2022 Busan Transportation Busan Transportation 0-1 HT 0-0 Changwon City Changwon City GK3L
POST-MATCH Changwon City vs Busan Transportation
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Changwon City nicked a narrow win over Busan Transportation 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Changwon City as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Changwon City had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Changwon City and 0.83 for Busan Transportation.

What was the final score of Changwon City vs Busan Transportation?

Changwon City 2-1 Busan Transportation in the South Kore - K3 League on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Changwon City vs Busan Transportation?

Before kick-off our model rated a Changwon City win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Changwon City 42%, draw 24%, Busan Transportation 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Changwon City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Changwon City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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