Groningen 1-1 NAC Breda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 7 Apr 2024

Groningen
1-1 HT 0-0
NAC Breda
📅07/04/2024 · 🕒13:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2023/2024

Groningen vs NAC Breda Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.42
Draw
22%
4.34
Away
21%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.03
Over 2.5
52%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.95
No
52%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.78
2-3 Goals
36%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
3.22
6+ Goals
13%
11.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.78 — our 29% vs market 21.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.74
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
18.95
X/1
20%
3.5
X/2
7%
13.95
X/X
7%
6.24
2/1
8%
22.7
2/2
9%
11.3
2/X
6%
19.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
66%
-9.5pp
22%
Draw
20%
+2.3pp
21%
Away Win
14%
+7.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.9pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Groningen v NAC Breda — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Groningen EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 17%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +21% / +19%
1.71/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.49
+7% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +29%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
366 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 73%
31.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
22.5 Crosses 16.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.1

Groningen vs NAC Breda Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Groningen
2W-2D-2L
AWAY NAC Breda
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.39 xG 1.28
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
340 Passes 314
75% Pass Accuracy 74%
19 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.10.2023 NAC Breda NAC Breda 3-2 HT 2-1 Groningen Groningen HOL2
23.02.2019 NAC Breda NAC Breda 0-0 HT 0-0 Groningen Groningen HOL
02.12.2018 Groningen Groningen 5-2 HT 1-1 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
23.02.2018 Groningen Groningen 1-1 HT 0-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
16.09.2017 NAC Breda NAC Breda 2-1 HT 0-0 Groningen Groningen HOL
17.05.2015 NAC Breda NAC Breda 4-5 HT 2-3 Groningen Groningen HOL

Groningen 1-1 NAC Breda — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Groningen
1-1
AWAY NAC Breda
1.09 xG 1.41
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
405 Passes 305
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
25 Box Touches 13
22 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Groningen vs NAC Breda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Groningen and NAC Breda couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

This one beat our numbers. Groningen carried 56% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Groningen had 56% of the ball to NAC Breda's 44%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 1.09 to 1.41.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Groningen and 2.00 for NAC Breda.

What was the final score of Groningen vs NAC Breda?

Groningen 1-1 NAC Breda in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Groningen vs NAC Breda?

Before kick-off our model rated a Groningen win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Groningen 56%, draw 22%, NAC Breda 21%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Groningen) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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