Roasso Kumamoto 3-4 V-Varen Nagasaki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 7 Apr 2024

📅07/04/2024 · 🕒07:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.94
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
43%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.82
Over 2.5
49%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.22
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.64
6+ Goals
11%
14.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.22 — our 30% vs market 25.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
24%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
31%
+1.7pp
24%
Draw
28%
-3.3pp
43%
Away Win
42%
+1.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
51%
-0.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
49%
+0.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.5pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roasso Kumamoto EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 45%
-12% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.00/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/0.97
-10% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +9%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
295 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 594 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roasso Kumamoto
4W-0D-2L
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
55% Ball Possession 45%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
457 Passes 384
1 Yellow Cards 0
29.07.2023 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 4-1 HT 2-0 Roasso Kumamoto Roasso Kumamoto JAP2
19.03.2023 Roasso Kumamoto Roasso Kumamoto 0-2 HT 0-1 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
10.09.2022 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 1-3 HT 1-1 Roasso Kumamoto Roasso Kumamoto JAP2
21.03.2022 Roasso Kumamoto Roasso Kumamoto 2-0 HT 1-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
04.10.2015 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 1-2 HT 1-0 Roasso Kumamoto Roasso Kumamoto JAP2
06.06.2015 Roasso Kumamoto Roasso Kumamoto 1-0 HT 0-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roasso Kumamoto
3-4
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki
63% Ball Possession 37%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Roasso Kumamoto vs V-Varen Nagasaki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

V-Varen Nagasaki edged past Roasso Kumamoto 4-3 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had V-Varen Nagasaki as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Roasso Kumamoto had 63% of the ball to V-Varen Nagasaki's 37%, shots finished 14-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Roasso Kumamoto had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Roasso Kumamoto and 1.33 for V-Varen Nagasaki.

What was the final score of Roasso Kumamoto vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

Roasso Kumamoto 3-4 V-Varen Nagasaki in the Japan - J2 League on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roasso Kumamoto vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

Before kick-off our model rated an V-Varen Nagasaki win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Roasso Kumamoto 33%, draw 24%, V-Varen Nagasaki 43%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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