Kauno Zalgiris 0-1 FK Panevezys — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lithuania - 1st Division, 7 Apr 2024

📅07/04/2024 · 🕒18:25 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.33
Draw
30%
2.94
Away
23%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.56
Over 2.5
36%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
1.96
No
62%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
43%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
25%
X/2
8%
X/X
18%
2/1
3%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
39%
+7.8pp
30%
Draw
30%
-0.1pp
23%
Away Win
30%
-7.5pp
64%
Under 2.5
60%
+4.2pp
36%
Over 2.5
40%
-4.2pp
38%
BTTS Yes
47%
-9.3pp
62%
BTTS No
53%
+9.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kauno Zalgiris EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Panevezys EU Bookmakers 34%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +7%
1.75/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.45
+15% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +4%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
324 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kauno Zalgiris
0W-2D-4L
AWAY FK Panevezys
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
25.10.2023 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 1-1 HT 0-0 FK Panevezys FK Panevezys LIT1
07.07.2023 FK Panevezys FK Panevezys 3-0 HT 1-0 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LITA
04.05.2023 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 0-1 HT 0-0 FK Panevezys FK Panevezys LIT1
19.03.2023 FK Panevezys FK Panevezys 2-1 HT 0-1 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LIT1
05.11.2022 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris 0-0 HT 0-0 FK Panevezys FK Panevezys LIT1
23.07.2022 FK Panevezys FK Panevezys 2-1 HT 1-0 Kauno Zalgiris Kauno Zalgiris LIT1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kauno Zalgiris
0-1
AWAY FK Panevezys
68% Ball Possession 32%
20 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Kauno Zalgiris vs FK Panevezys
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FK Panevezys squeezed past Kauno Zalgiris 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Kauno Zalgiris at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Kauno Zalgiris had 68% of the ball to FK Panevezys's 32%, shots finished 20-4.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FK Panevezys led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Kauno Zalgiris and 1.50 for FK Panevezys.

What was the final score of Kauno Zalgiris vs FK Panevezys?

Kauno Zalgiris 0-1 FK Panevezys in the Lithuania - 1st Division on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kauno Zalgiris vs FK Panevezys?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kauno Zalgiris win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Kauno Zalgiris 47%, draw 30%, FK Panevezys 23%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Kauno Zalgiris) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Kauno Zalgiris) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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