Ferencvaros 1-0 Paksi SE — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 7 Apr 2024

📅07/04/2024 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.43
Draw
22%
4.34
Away
21%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.29
Over 2.5
57%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.73
2-3 Goals
39%
1.92
4-5 Goals
29%
2.83
6+ Goals
12%
7.82
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
8%
1/X
10%
X/1
12%
X/2
5%
X/X
7%
2/1
9%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
66%
-8.1pp
22%
Draw
20%
+1.9pp
21%
Away Win
15%
+6.2pp
43%
Under 2.5
40%
+2.8pp
57%
Over 2.5
60%
-2.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.7pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ferencvaros EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Paksi SE EU Bookmakers 18%
-2% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +25%
2.13/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/2.34
+18% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +73% / -10%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
333 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 79%
41.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
24.8 Crosses 18.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ferencvaros
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Paksi SE
3.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.44 xG 1.47
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
425 Passes 182
84% Pass Accuracy 65%
32 Box Touches 22
27 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
10.12.2023 Paksi SE Paksi SE 3-2 HT 2-0 Ferencvaros Ferencvaros MAC
27.08.2023 Ferencvaros Ferencvaros 6-1 HT 6-1 Paksi SE Paksi SE MAC
08.04.2023 Paksi SE Paksi SE 3-2 HT 1-1 Ferencvaros Ferencvaros MAC
01.02.2023 Paksi SE Paksi SE 1-3 HT 0-0 Ferencvaros Ferencvaros MAC
09.11.2022 Ferencvaros Ferencvaros 3-2 HT 2-2 Paksi SE Paksi SE MAC
11.05.2022 Ferencvaros Ferencvaros 3-0 HT 1-0 Paksi SE Paksi SE MACK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ferencvaros
1-0
AWAY Paksi SE
2.31 xG 0.40
71% Ball Possession 29%
20 Total Shots 6
9 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
446 Passes 144
83% Pass Accuracy 63%
38 Box Touches 14
34 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Ferencvaros vs Paksi SE
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ferencvaros squeezed past Paksi SE 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Ferencvaros as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ferencvaros had 71% of the ball to Paksi SE's 29%, shots finished 20-6, expected goals 2.31 to 0.40 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Ferencvaros's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ferencvaros had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 3.17 goals for Ferencvaros and 1.67 for Paksi SE.

What was the final score of Ferencvaros vs Paksi SE?

Ferencvaros 1-0 Paksi SE in the Hungary - NB I on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ferencvaros vs Paksi SE?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ferencvaros win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Ferencvaros 57%, draw 22%, Paksi SE 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ferencvaros) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ferencvaros) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MAC More Hungary - NB I
7 Apr 2024
18:30 Kecskemeti TE vs Puskas FC Analysis →