Leicester City 0-3 Newcastle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 7 Apr 2025

Leicester City
0-3 HT 0-3
Newcastle United
📅07/04/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Leicester City vs Newcastle United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
5.4
Draw
24%
4.19
Away OUR CALL
57%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.07
Over 2.5
51%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.85
No
50%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.85
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
3.09
6+ Goals
11%
10.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.85 — our 27% vs market 20.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
10.85
1/2
7%
22.0
1/X
6%
19.35
X/1
6%
13.05
X/2
22%
3.96
X/X
13%
6.28
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
27%
1.8
2/X
6%
16.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Newcastle United win — 57% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
15%
+3.5pp
24%
Draw
21%
+3.8pp
57%
Away Win
64%
-7.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
50%
+0.4pp
50%
BTTS No
50%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Leicester City v Newcastle United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leicester City EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 69%
-11% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
0.99/1.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.28/1.02
-34% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / +26%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
254 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 430 · 82%
18.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 35.3
16.6 Crosses 16.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.4

Leicester City vs Newcastle United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leicester City
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Newcastle United
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.80 xG 2.14
48% Ball Possession 52%
6 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
326 Passes 373
75% Pass Accuracy 79%
15 Box Touches 37
11 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
14.12.2024 Newcastle United Newcastle United 4-0 HT 1-0 Leicester City Leicester City İNP
22.05.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 0-0 HT 0-0 Leicester City Leicester City İNP
10.01.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 2-0 HT 0-0 Leicester City Leicester City İNLK
26.12.2022 Leicester City Leicester City 0-3 HT 0-3 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
17.04.2022 Newcastle United Newcastle United 2-1 HT 1-1 Leicester City Leicester City İNP
12.12.2021 Leicester City Leicester City 4-0 HT 1-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP

Leicester City 0-3 Newcastle United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leicester City
0-3
AWAY Newcastle United
0.45 xG 3.25
58% Ball Possession 42%
7 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 5
12 Corners 2
458 Passes 332
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 22
31 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Leicester City vs Newcastle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle United ran out comfortable winners over Leicester City 3-0 away from home.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Newcastle United as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Leicester City had 58% of the ball to Newcastle United's 42%, shots finished 7-16, expected goals 0.45 to 3.25.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newcastle United led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Leicester City and 1.83 for Newcastle United.

What was the final score of Leicester City vs Newcastle United?

Leicester City 0-3 Newcastle United in the England - Premier League on 07/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leicester City vs Newcastle United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Newcastle United win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Leicester City 19%, draw 24%, Newcastle United 57%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Newcastle United), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Newcastle United) ✓ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →