America Mineiro 1-2 Ferroviaria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 7 Jun 2025

📅07/06/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.66
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
26%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.64
Over 2.5
40%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.09
No
60%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.54
2-3 Goals
38%
1.73
4-5 Goals
19%
4.25
6+ Goals
8%
21.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.54 — our 35% vs market 32.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
22%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
56%
-7.7pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.2pp
26%
Away Win
18%
+8.0pp
60%
Under 2.5
57%
+2.5pp
40%
Over 2.5
43%
-2.5pp
40%
BTTS Yes
44%
-3.6pp
60%
BTTS No
56%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME America Mineiro EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Ferroviaria EU Bookmakers 21%
+5% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.50/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.47/1.14
+15% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +150%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
329 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 76%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.4
21.5 Crosses 11.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME America Mineiro
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Ferroviaria
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
26.08.2020 America Mineiro America Mineiro 1-0 HT 0-0 Ferroviaria Ferroviaria BRK
12.03.2020 Ferroviaria Ferroviaria 0-0 HT 0-0 America Mineiro America Mineiro BRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME America Mineiro
1-2
AWAY Ferroviaria
0.97 xG 1.59
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 3
390 Passes 386
86% Pass Accuracy 86%
29 Box Touches 17
30 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH America Mineiro vs Ferroviaria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ferroviaria nicked a narrow win over America Mineiro 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was America Mineiro at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, America Mineiro had 51% of the ball to Ferroviaria's 49%, shots finished 14-14, expected goals 0.97 to 1.59.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, America Mineiro had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for America Mineiro and 0.00 for Ferroviaria.

What was the final score of America Mineiro vs Ferroviaria?

America Mineiro 1-2 Ferroviaria in the Brazil - Serie B on 07/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for America Mineiro vs Ferroviaria?

Before kick-off our model rated a America Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split America Mineiro 48%, draw 26%, Ferroviaria 26%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (America Mineiro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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