Coritiba 1-1 Paysandu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 7 Jul 2024

Coritiba
1-1 HT 1-1
Paysandu
📅07/07/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie B – 2024

Coritiba vs Paysandu Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.66
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
26%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.74
Over 2.5
44%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.99
No
56%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.87
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.06
6+ Goals
9%
19.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.87 — our 30% vs market 29.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
56%
-10.7pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.2pp
26%
Away Win
18%
+7.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
54%
+2.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
46%
-2.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
46%
-1.9pp
56%
BTTS No
54%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Coritiba v Paysandu — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Coritiba EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Paysandu EU Bookmakers 21%
+7% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +8%
1.56/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/0.89
+19% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +20%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
344 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 75%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
22.6 Crosses 20.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.2

Coritiba vs Paysandu Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Coritiba
2W-2D-1L
AWAY Paysandu
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
0.15 xG 1.89
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 8
214 Passes 266
68% Pass Accuracy 76%
14 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.10.2018 Paysandu Paysandu 1-1 HT 0-0 Coritiba Coritiba BR2
05.07.2018 Coritiba Coritiba 2-0 HT 1-0 Paysandu Paysandu BR2
12.10.2005 Paysandu Paysandu 2-1 HT 0-0 Coritiba Coritiba BR1
02.07.2005 Coritiba Coritiba 3-1 HT 1-0 Paysandu Paysandu BR1
30.10.2004 Paysandu Paysandu 0-0 HT 0-0 Coritiba Coritiba BR1

Coritiba 1-1 Paysandu — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Coritiba
1-1
AWAY Paysandu
1.09 xG 1.12
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 7
230 Passes 246
71% Pass Accuracy 73%
31 Box Touches 11
32 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Coritiba vs Paysandu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Coritiba and Paysandu couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Coritiba at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (56%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Coritiba had 50% of the ball to Paysandu's 50%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 1.09 to 1.12.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Coritiba had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Coritiba and 0.80 for Paysandu.

What was the final score of Coritiba vs Paysandu?

Coritiba 1-1 Paysandu in the Brazil - Serie B on 07/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Coritiba vs Paysandu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Coritiba win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Coritiba 46%, draw 29%, Paysandu 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Coritiba), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Coritiba) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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