Ituano 3-2 Botafogo SP — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 7 Jul 2024

📅07/07/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.27
Draw
25%
2.94
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.48
Over 2.5
44%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.09
No
58%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
40%
+4.7pp
25%
Draw
30%
-5.6pp
30%
Away Win
30%
+0.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
64%
-8.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
36%
+8.0pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.5pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ituano EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Botafogo SP EU Bookmakers 33%
+0% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -4%
1.19/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/0.95
-8% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +5%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
334 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 79%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
23.0 Crosses 16.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ituano
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Botafogo SP
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.89 xG 1.34
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
260 Passes 310
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
10 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.02.2024 Ituano Ituano 0-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP BREPAU
30.09.2023 Ituano Ituano 1-1 HT 1-1 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP BR2
07.06.2023 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 0-2 HT 0-0 Ituano Ituano BR2
09.02.2023 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 2-3 HT 1-2 Ituano Ituano BREPAU
01.04.2022 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 0-3 HT 0-1 Ituano Ituano BRPL1
25.09.2021 Ituano Ituano 0-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP BRE3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ituano
3-2
AWAY Botafogo SP
0.18 xG 0.92
32% Ball Possession 68%
4 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 9
1 Corners 13
212 Passes 474
79% Pass Accuracy 89%
3 Box Touches 20
5 Crosses 39
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ituano vs Botafogo SP
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ituano squeezed past Botafogo SP 3-2. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Ituano as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ituano had 32% of the ball to Botafogo SP's 68%, shots finished 4-19, expected goals 0.18 to 0.92 — on chances, Botafogo SP could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ituano had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Ituano and 0.50 for Botafogo SP.

What was the final score of Ituano vs Botafogo SP?

Ituano 3-2 Botafogo SP in the Brazil - Serie B on 07/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ituano vs Botafogo SP?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ituano win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Ituano 45%, draw 25%, Botafogo SP 30%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ituano) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ituano) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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