Zamalek 2-1 Ismaily — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Egypt - Premier League, 7 Jul 2024

📅07/07/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.0
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
30%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.78
Over 2.5
42%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.81
No
60%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.04
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.85
6+ Goals
7%
17.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.04 — our 32% vs market 27.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
9%
X/2
10%
X/X
17%
2/1
9%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-4.7pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.2pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+3.5pp
58%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.9pp
40%
BTTS Yes
51%
-11.0pp
60%
BTTS No
49%
+11.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zamalek EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Ismaily EU Bookmakers 30%
+7% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +3%
1.51/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.07
+50% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +4%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
421 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 72%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
16.7 Crosses 13.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zamalek
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Ismaily
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.19 xG 1.09
59% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
400 Passes 240
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 17
23 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
19.02.2024 Ismaily Ismaily 0-0 HT 0-0 Zamalek Zamalek MSR
13.05.2023 Ismaily Ismaily 2-1 HT 1-1 Zamalek Zamalek MSR
29.12.2022 Zamalek Zamalek 3-1 HT 3-1 Ismaily Ismaily MSR
15.08.2022 Zamalek Zamalek 1-0 HT 1-0 Ismaily Ismaily MSRK
28.05.2022 Zamalek Zamalek 2-1 HT 1-0 Ismaily Ismaily MSR
19.11.2021 Ismaily Ismaily 0-2 HT 0-0 Zamalek Zamalek MSR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zamalek
2-1
AWAY Ismaily
1.90 xG 0.41
49% Ball Possession 51%
5 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 6
334 Passes 356
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
15 Box Touches 11
8 Crosses 19
POST-MATCH Zamalek vs Ismaily
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zamalek nicked a narrow win over Ismaily 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Zamalek as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Zamalek had 49% of the ball to Ismaily's 51%, shots finished 5-6, expected goals 1.90 to 0.41 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Zamalek's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Zamalek had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Zamalek and 0.67 for Ismaily.

What was the final score of Zamalek vs Ismaily?

Zamalek 2-1 Ismaily in the Egypt - Premier League on 07/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zamalek vs Ismaily?

Before kick-off our model rated a Zamalek win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Zamalek 41%, draw 28%, Ismaily 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Zamalek) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Zamalek) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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