Chesham United 3-2 Aveley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 7 Sep 2024

📅07/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.66
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
28%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.64
2-3 Goals
45%
1.81
4-5 Goals
20%
3.32
6+ Goals
7%
11.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.64 — our 28% vs market 22.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
6%
1/X
12%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
4%
2/1
3%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
56%
-9.2pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.0pp
28%
Away Win
21%
+7.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+5.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-5.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.6pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chesham United EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Aveley EU Bookmakers 24%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -11%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
388 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chesham United
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Aveley
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
15.12.2020 Aveley Aveley 1-3 HT 0-1 Chesham United Chesham United FAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chesham United
3-2
AWAY Aveley
65% Ball Possession 35%
17 Total Shots 4
8 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
POST-MATCH Chesham United vs Aveley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chesham United squeezed past Aveley 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Chesham United as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Chesham United had 65% of the ball to Aveley's 35%, shots finished 17-4.

What was the final score of Chesham United vs Aveley?

Chesham United 3-2 Aveley in the England - Conference on 07/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chesham United vs Aveley?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chesham United win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Chesham United 47%, draw 25%, Aveley 28%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chesham United), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chesham United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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