Melgar 3-0 Comerciantes Unidos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 7 Sep 2024

📅07/09/2024 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
66%
1.16
Draw
20%
6.26
Away
14%
12.05
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.59
Over 2.5
54%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.4
No
58%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
42%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
4%
X/X
7%
2/1
6%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
66%
Home Win
82%
-15.9pp
20%
Draw
13%
+7.0pp
14%
Away Win
6%
+8.8pp
46%
Under 2.5
35%
+11.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
65%
-11.1pp
42%
BTTS Yes
38%
+4.6pp
58%
BTTS No
62%
-4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melgar EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Comerciantes Unidos EU Bookmakers 8%
-11% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
2.09/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.66/1.81
-5% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / -13%
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
450 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 76%
27.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 8.7
22.1 Crosses 13.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melgar
1W-4D-0L
AWAY Comerciantes Unidos
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.60 xG 0.49
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
365 Passes 218
82% Pass Accuracy 73%
25 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
02.03.2024 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos 0-0 HT 0-0 Melgar Melgar PER
02.11.2018 Melgar Melgar 2-1 HT 0-0 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos PER
05.08.2018 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos 2-2 HT 0-1 Melgar Melgar PER
20.11.2017 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos 1-1 HT 1-1 Melgar Melgar PER
26.07.2017 Melgar Melgar 1-1 HT 0-0 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melgar
3-0
AWAY Comerciantes Unidos
1.82 xG 0.23
61% Ball Possession 39%
21 Total Shots 5
12 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 0
473 Passes 272
89% Pass Accuracy 80%
32 Box Touches 8
19 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melgar swept aside Comerciantes Unidos 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Melgar as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (58%) came in.

On the day, Melgar had 61% of the ball to Comerciantes Unidos's 39%, shots finished 21-5, expected goals 1.82 to 0.23.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Melgar had the better of it with 1 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Melgar and 1.00 for Comerciantes Unidos.

What was the final score of Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos?

Melgar 3-0 Comerciantes Unidos in the Peru - Premier League on 07/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melgar vs Comerciantes Unidos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melgar win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Melgar 66%, draw 20%, Comerciantes Unidos 14%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melgar), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Melgar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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