Birmingham Legion 2-3 North Carolina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 7 Oct 2024

Birmingham Legion
2-3 HT 1-1
North Carolina
📅07/10/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
USL Championship – 2024

Birmingham Legion vs North Carolina Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.53
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
33%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
54%
1.97
Over
46%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.63
No
47%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
27%
3.62
2-3
43%
1.81
4-5
21%
3.33
6+
9%
12.05
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.62 — our 27% vs market 22.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
8%
1/X
10%
X/1
10%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 54% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
36%
+2.2pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.9pp
33%
Away Win
38%
-5.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
47%
+7.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
53%
-7.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
57%
-4.6pp
47%
BTTS No
43%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Birmingham Legion v North Carolina — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Birmingham Legion EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY North Carolina EU Bookmakers 43%
-9% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -18%
0.94/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.24
-23% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -44% / -4%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
334 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 79%
16.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
13.6 Crosses 18.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3

Birmingham Legion vs North Carolina Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Birmingham Legion
2W-1D-3L
AWAY North Carolina
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.98 xG 1.60
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
377 Passes 373
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 26
17 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
15.04.2024 North Carolina North Carolina 1-1 HT 1-1 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
27.09.2020 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 1-2 HT 0-2 North Carolina North Carolina USLP
03.09.2020 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 1-2 HT 0-1 North Carolina North Carolina USLP
16.08.2020 North Carolina North Carolina 0-2 HT 0-2 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
02.08.2020 North Carolina North Carolina 1-0 HT 0-0 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
24.10.2019 North Carolina North Carolina 2-3 HT 1-1 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP

Birmingham Legion 2-3 North Carolina — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Birmingham Legion
2-3
AWAY North Carolina
1.07 xG 1.02
54% Ball Possession 46%
21 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 7
9 Corners 2
456 Passes 377
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Birmingham Legion vs North Carolina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

North Carolina nicked a narrow win over Birmingham Legion 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 29% / 33%) promised a tight game; North Carolina found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Birmingham Legion had 54% of the ball to North Carolina's 46%, shots finished 21-14, expected goals 1.07 to 1.02.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, North Carolina led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Birmingham Legion and 1.33 for North Carolina.

What was the final score of Birmingham Legion vs North Carolina?

Birmingham Legion 2-3 North Carolina in the USL Championship on 07/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Birmingham Legion vs North Carolina?

Before kick-off our model rated a Birmingham Legion win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Birmingham Legion 38%, draw 29%, North Carolina 33%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Birmingham Legion), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Birmingham Legion) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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