Luzern 1-4 Lugano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 7 Dec 2024

📅07/12/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.38
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
36%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.07
Over 2.5
46%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.55
No
53%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.09
2-3 Goals
38%
1.87
4-5 Goals
24%
3.12
6+ Goals
10%
10.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.09 — our 28% vs market 19.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.54
1/2
6%
28.0
1/X
7%
12.15
X/1
15%
5.79
X/2
9%
6.08
X/X
10%
4.89
2/1
7%
26.5
2/2
21%
3.8
2/X
9%
12.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
38%
-0.6pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.0pp
36%
Away Win
35%
+1.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
60%
-13.0pp
53%
BTTS No
40%
+13.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Luzern EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugano EU Bookmakers 38%
+0% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +3%
1.60/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.30
-3% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -1%
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
320 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 79%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
20.7 Crosses 17.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Luzern
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Lugano
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.61 xG 1.45
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
274 Passes 349
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
26 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 4
11.08.2024 Lugano Lugano 2-3 HT 2-1 Luzern Luzern İSV
03.03.2024 Luzern Luzern 0-1 HT 0-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
03.12.2023 Lugano Lugano 1-0 HT 0-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
03.09.2023 Luzern Luzern 3-2 HT 2-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
07.05.2023 Luzern Luzern 2-2 HT 2-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
12.02.2023 Lugano Lugano 1-1 HT 1-1 Luzern Luzern İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Luzern
1-4
AWAY Lugano
0.96 xG 2.46
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 1
260 Passes 380
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
23 Box Touches 25
23 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Luzern vs Lugano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugano cruised past Luzern 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 26% / 36% — and on the day Lugano made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Luzern had 44% of the ball to Lugano's 56%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 0.96 to 2.46.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Luzern and 1.50 for Lugano.

What was the final score of Luzern vs Lugano?

Luzern 1-4 Lugano in the Switzerland - Super League on 07/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Luzern vs Lugano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Luzern win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Luzern 38%, draw 26%, Lugano 36%. The final score 1-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Luzern) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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