Luzern 0-1 Lugano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 3 Mar 2024

📅03/03/2024 · 🕒16:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.96
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
32%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.1
Over 2.5
50%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.61
No
45%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.09
2-3 Goals
39%
1.85
4-5 Goals
24%
3.07
6+ Goals
11%
9.78
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.68
1/2
8%
32.5
1/X
7%
13.45
X/1
10%
4.62
X/2
13%
7.15
X/X
11%
5.36
2/1
7%
22.7
2/2
11%
4.9
2/X
10%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
47%
-7.4pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.2pp
32%
Away Win
28%
+4.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.2pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Luzern EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugano EU Bookmakers 32%
+4% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +11%
1.79/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.39
+17% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -3%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
327 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 75%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
19.7 Crosses 16.7
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Luzern
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Lugano
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.75 xG 1.41
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
289 Passes 339
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
28 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
03.12.2023 Lugano Lugano 1-0 HT 0-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
03.09.2023 Luzern Luzern 3-2 HT 2-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
07.05.2023 Luzern Luzern 2-2 HT 2-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
12.02.2023 Lugano Lugano 1-1 HT 1-1 Luzern Luzern İSV
22.10.2022 Luzern Luzern 3-1 HT 0-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
07.08.2022 Lugano Lugano 1-2 HT 0-1 Luzern Luzern İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Luzern
0-1
AWAY Lugano
1.00 xG 0.80
44% Ball Possession 56%
17 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 1
260 Passes 361
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 7
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Luzern vs Lugano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugano squeezed past Luzern 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (40% / 28% / 32%) promised a tight game; Lugano found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Luzern had 44% of the ball to Lugano's 56%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 1.00 to 0.80.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Luzern had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Luzern and 1.33 for Lugano.

What was the final score of Luzern vs Lugano?

Luzern 0-1 Lugano in the Switzerland - Super League on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Luzern vs Lugano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Luzern win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Luzern 40%, draw 28%, Lugano 32%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Luzern) ✗ BTTS Yes
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