Merida AD 3-2 Ourense CF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 7 Dec 2025

Merida AD
3-2 HT 1-1
Ourense CF
📅07/12/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Spain - 2nd Division B – 2025/2026

Merida AD vs Ourense CF Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.09
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
26%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.59
Over 2.5
40%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.99
No
53%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.36
2-3 Goals
42%
1.75
4-5 Goals
16%
4.69
6+ Goals
8%
26.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
44%
+0.4pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.6pp
26%
Away Win
27%
-1.0pp
60%
Under 2.5
59%
+1.3pp
40%
Over 2.5
41%
-1.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
46%
+0.9pp
53%
BTTS No
54%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Merida AD v Ourense CF — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Merida AD EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Ourense CF EU Bookmakers 31%
+7% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +4%
1.50/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.24
+10% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +1%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
324 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.5

Merida AD 3-2 Ourense CF — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Merida AD
3-2
AWAY Ourense CF
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Merida AD vs Ourense CF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Merida AD squeezed past Ourense CF 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Merida AD as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Merida AD had 55% of the ball to Ourense CF's 45%, shots finished 17-8.

What was the final score of Merida AD vs Ourense CF?

Merida AD 3-2 Ourense CF in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 07/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Merida AD vs Ourense CF?

Before kick-off our model rated a Merida AD win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Merida AD 44%, draw 29%, Ourense CF 26%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Merida AD) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Merida AD) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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