Tondela 0-2 Porto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 7 Dec 2025

Tondela
0-2 HT 0-0
Porto
📅07/12/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 ✗ 2nd Score 0-4 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2025/2026

Tondela vs Porto Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
9%
7.78
Draw
17%
4.62
Away
74%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.03
Over 2.5
52%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.13
No
54%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.76
2-3 Goals
42%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.15
6+ Goals
10%
10.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
3%
16.65
1/2
8%
24.0
1/X
4%
25.5
X/1
3%
18.25
X/2 EV+ ✓
33%
3.7
X/X
8%
6.99
2/1
3%
35.0
2/2
33%
1.56
2/X
5%
21.55
Value flag · X/2 at 3.7 — our 33% vs market 21.6%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
9%
Home Win
10%
-1.0pp
17%
Draw
19%
-1.4pp
74%
Away Win
71%
+2.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
45%
+2.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
55%
-2.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
43%
+3.3pp
54%
BTTS No
57%
-3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Tondela v Porto — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tondela EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY Porto EU Bookmakers 75%
-8% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +6%
0.68/1.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.82/0.82
-44% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +16%
37% Ball Possession 63%
8 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
208 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 435 · 82%
10.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.3
15.9 Crosses 19.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4

Tondela vs Porto Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tondela
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Porto
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
0.23 xG 2.67
36% Ball Possession 64%
6 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 8
187 Passes 471
69% Pass Accuracy 86%
10 Box Touches 38
12 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.07.2022 Porto Porto 3-0 HT 2-0 Tondela Tondela Portekiz - SUper Kupa
22.05.2022 Porto Porto 3-1 HT 1-0 Tondela Tondela POK
13.03.2022 Porto Porto 4-0 HT 1-0 Tondela Tondela POR
23.10.2021 Tondela Tondela 1-3 HT 1-2 Porto Porto POR
10.04.2021 Tondela Tondela 0-2 HT 0-1 Porto Porto POR
13.12.2020 Porto Porto 2-1 HT 2-1 Tondela Tondela POK

Tondela 0-2 Porto — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tondela
0-2
AWAY Porto
0.48 xG 1.94
26% Ball Possession 74%
11 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
163 Passes 566
74% Pass Accuracy 87%
15 Box Touches 32
10 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Tondela vs Porto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto saw off Tondela 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Porto as the likeliest winner at 74%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Tondela had 26% of the ball to Porto's 74%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 0.48 to 1.94.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Tondela and 2.83 for Porto.

What was the final score of Tondela vs Porto?

Tondela 0-2 Porto in the Portugal - Premier League on 07/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tondela vs Porto?

Before kick-off our model rated an Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 74%, with the full match-result split Tondela 9%, draw 17%, Porto 74%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Porto) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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