Estrela vs Arouca Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Estrela v Arouca — Team-Based Signals
Estrela vs Arouca Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings
1-4
HT 1-0
Arouca
POR
Estrela 3-1 Arouca — Actual Match Statistics
Estrela saw off Arouca 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Estrela as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Estrela had 63% of the ball to Arouca's 37%, shots finished 24-9, expected goals 3.33 to 0.59.
For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Arouca led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Estrela and 1.50 for Arouca.
What was the final score of Estrela vs Arouca?
Estrela 3-1 Arouca in the Portugal - Premier League on 07/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Estrela vs Arouca?
Before kick-off our model rated a Estrela win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Estrela 48%, draw 26%, Arouca 26%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Estrela) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.