Arouca 0-0 Estrela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 5 May 2024

Arouca
0-0 HT 0-0
Estrela
📅05/05/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Arouca vs Estrela Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.0
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
28%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.15
Over 2.5
50%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.6
No
52%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
4.18
2-3 Goals
40%
1.86
4-5 Goals
23%
3.03
6+ Goals
10%
9.43
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.18 — our 27% vs market 18.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.74
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
6%
13.05
X/1
9%
4.77
X/2
9%
7.09
X/X
15%
5.29
2/1
8%
22.7
2/2
13%
4.77
2/X
7%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-2.7pp
29%
Draw
25%
+4.0pp
28%
Away Win
29%
-1.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
43%
+7.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
57%
-7.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.7pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+10.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arouca v Estrela — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arouca EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Estrela EU Bookmakers 32%
+4% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
1.43/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.02
+11% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +26%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
307 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 77%
17.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
17.7 Crosses 17.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2

Arouca vs Estrela Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arouca
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Estrela
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
4.05 xG 0.94
61% Ball Possession 39%
19 Total Shots 5
8 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 3
470 Passes 256
85% Pass Accuracy 75%
29 Box Touches 8
12 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
28.12.2023 Estrela Estrela 1-4 HT 1-0 Arouca Arouca POR

Arouca 0-0 Estrela — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arouca
0-0
AWAY Estrela
0.78 xG 0.31
71% Ball Possession 29%
23 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 3
511 Passes 151
88% Pass Accuracy 65%
26 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Arouca vs Estrela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arouca and Estrela played out a goalless draw. Neither side could find a way through.

Our pre-match lean was Arouca at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Arouca had 71% of the ball to Estrela's 29%, shots finished 23-6, expected goals 0.78 to 0.31.

What was the final score of Arouca vs Estrela?

Arouca 0-0 Estrela in the Portugal - Premier League on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arouca vs Estrela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arouca win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Arouca 43%, draw 29%, Estrela 28%. The final score 0-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Arouca) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Arouca) ✓ BTTS No
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