Farense 3-2 Estoril — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 5 May 2024

Farense
3-2 HT 2-1
Estoril
📅05/05/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Farense vs Estoril Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.53
Draw
28%
2.94
Away
34%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.91
Over 2.5
46%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.63
No
51%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.56
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.37
6+ Goals
9%
12.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.56 — our 30% vs market 22.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.76
1/2
6%
29.5
1/X
9%
11.15
X/1
11%
6.05
X/2
12%
6.13
X/X
11%
4.19
2/1
8%
29.0
2/2
16%
3.84
2/X
8%
11.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
36%
+2.6pp
28%
Draw
30%
-2.7pp
34%
Away Win
34%
+0.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
57%
-7.9pp
51%
BTTS No
43%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Farense v Estoril — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Farense EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Estoril EU Bookmakers 37%
-3% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -20%
1.31/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.30
-22% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -3%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
275 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 375 · 82%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
24.7 Crosses 20.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.7

Farense vs Estoril Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Farense
2W-0D-3L
AWAY Estoril
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.80
2.34 xG 1.42
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
247 Passes 455
78% Pass Accuracy 85%
21 Box Touches 30
26 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.12.2023 Estoril Estoril 4-0 HT 2-0 Farense Farense POR
01.02.2020 Farense Farense 0-2 HT 0-1 Estoril Estoril POR2
18.08.2019 Estoril Estoril 1-2 HT 1-1 Farense Farense POR2
29.07.2018 Farense Farense 0-2 HT 0-1 Estoril Estoril PORLC
15.10.2017 Farense Farense 1-0 HT 0-0 Estoril Estoril POK

Farense 3-2 Estoril — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Farense
3-2
AWAY Estoril
1.31 xG 0.93
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
332 Passes 303
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 21
13 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Farense vs Estoril
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Farense nicked a narrow win over Estoril 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 28% / 34% — and on the day Farense made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Farense had 50% of the ball to Estoril's 50%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 1.31 to 0.93.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Estoril led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Farense and 1.80 for Estoril.

What was the final score of Farense vs Estoril?

Farense 3-2 Estoril in the Portugal - Premier League on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Farense vs Estoril?

Before kick-off our model rated a Farense win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Farense 38%, draw 28%, Estoril 34%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Farense) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Farense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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