Sporting Braga 4-3 Casa Pia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 5 May 2024

📅05/05/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.34
Draw
22%
4.81
Away
17%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.51
Over 2.5
57%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.45
2-3 Goals
36%
2.01
4-5 Goals
28%
2.67
6+ Goals
13%
6.47
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.56
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
4%
20.3
X/1
26%
3.62
X/2
5%
17.2
X/X
12%
7.96
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
20.6
2/2
7%
12.5
2/X
6%
20.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.6 — our 7% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
70%
-9.2pp
22%
Draw
18%
+3.9pp
17%
Away Win
12%
+5.4pp
43%
Under 2.5
36%
+7.4pp
57%
Over 2.5
64%
-7.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.3pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Casa Pia EU Bookmakers 15%
+1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +20%
2.15/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/2.44
-15% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +72% / -8%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
425 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 75%
31.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.9
24.8 Crosses 9.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Braga
3W-1D-1L
AWAY Casa Pia
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 0.60
1.92 xG 0.78
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
532 Passes 288
86% Pass Accuracy 77%
29 Box Touches 11
24 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.12.2023 Casa Pia Casa Pia 1-3 HT 0-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
01.11.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-1 HT 0-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia PORLC
21.04.2023 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-1 HT 0-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
03.12.2022 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-1 HT 0-1 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga PORLC
06.11.2022 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 0-1 HT 0-1 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Braga
4-3
AWAY Casa Pia
1.71 xG 1.87
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 7
474 Passes 360
88% Pass Accuracy 83%
34 Box Touches 24
25 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Sporting Braga vs Casa Pia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Braga nicked a narrow win over Casa Pia 4-3. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sporting Braga as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Sporting Braga had 56% of the ball to Casa Pia's 44%, shots finished 18-15, expected goals 1.71 to 1.87.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Sporting Braga had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Sporting Braga and 0.60 for Casa Pia.

What was the final score of Sporting Braga vs Casa Pia?

Sporting Braga 4-3 Casa Pia in the Portugal - Premier League on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Braga vs Casa Pia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Braga win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Sporting Braga 61%, draw 22%, Casa Pia 17%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Braga), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Braga) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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