Arouca vs Estrela Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Arouca v Estrela — Team-Based Signals
Arouca vs Estrela Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings
1-4
HT 1-0
Arouca
POR
Arouca 1-0 Estrela — Actual Match Statistics
Arouca nicked a narrow win over Estrela 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Arouca as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Arouca had 57% of the ball to Estrela's 43%, shots finished 19-8, expected goals 1.95 to 0.62 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Arouca's control.
For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Arouca and 1.00 for Estrela.
What was the final score of Arouca vs Estrela?
Arouca 1-0 Estrela in the Portugal - Premier League on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Arouca vs Estrela?
Before kick-off our model rated a Arouca win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Arouca 43%, draw 27%, Estrela 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arouca), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.