Nacional 0-3 Gil Vicente — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.33
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
34%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.64
Over 2.5
43%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.6
2-3 Goals
42%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
4.33
6+ Goals
8%
22.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.59
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
10%
13.25
X/1
12%
5.28
X/2
11%
6.18
X/X
11%
4.0
2/1
12%
31.0
2/2
16%
4.58
2/X
8%
13.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
39%
-2.2pp
29%
Draw
30%
-0.7pp
34%
Away Win
31%
+2.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
57%
+0.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
43%
-0.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.4pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Gil Vicente EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / +5%
1.61/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.22
+24% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -6%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
293 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 79%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
20.7 Crosses 17.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Gil Vicente
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.15 xG 1.22
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
297 Passes 326
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
07.12.2024 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 2-1 HT 1-0 Nacional Nacional POR
27.11.2022 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 2-0 HT 2-0 Nacional Nacional PORLC
19.03.2021 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 2-0 HT 0-0 Nacional Nacional POR
08.11.2020 Nacional Nacional 2-1 HT 0-1 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
10.12.2017 Nacional Nacional 1-1 HT 1-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR2
13.01.2016 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 1-0 HT 1-0 Nacional Nacional POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional
0-3
AWAY Gil Vicente
0.79 xG 1.62
64% Ball Possession 36%
20 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 0
330 Passes 158
82% Pass Accuracy 67%
22 Box Touches 12
30 Crosses 5
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Nacional vs Gil Vicente
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gil Vicente cruised past Nacional 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 29% / 34% — and on the day Gil Vicente made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Nacional had 64% of the ball to Gil Vicente's 36%, shots finished 20-8, expected goals 0.79 to 1.62.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gil Vicente led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Nacional and 1.50 for Gil Vicente.

What was the final score of Nacional vs Gil Vicente?

Nacional 0-3 Gil Vicente in the Portugal - Premier League on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional vs Gil Vicente?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Nacional 37%, draw 29%, Gil Vicente 34%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Nacional), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nacional) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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