Gil Vicente 2-1 Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 7 Dec 2024

📅07/12/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.96
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
32%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.74
Over 2.5
43%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.95
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
18%
4.04
6+ Goals
12%
18.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.95 — our 32% vs market 28.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.01
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.35
X/1
16%
4.89
X/2
12%
8.41
X/X
15%
4.8
2/1
9%
30.5
2/2
11%
6.51
2/X
7%
16.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
47%
-8.0pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.9pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+6.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
54%
+2.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
46%
-2.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.7pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gil Vicente EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Nacional EU Bookmakers 29%
+1% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -22%
1.40/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.35
+9% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -42% / -3%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
343 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 79%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
19.1 Crosses 19.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gil Vicente
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Nacional
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.31 xG 0.91
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
300 Passes 308
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
11 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
27.11.2022 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 2-0 HT 2-0 Nacional Nacional PORLC
19.03.2021 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 2-0 HT 0-0 Nacional Nacional POR
08.11.2020 Nacional Nacional 2-1 HT 0-1 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
10.12.2017 Nacional Nacional 1-1 HT 1-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR2
13.01.2016 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 1-0 HT 1-0 Nacional Nacional POK
12.04.2015 Nacional Nacional 3-2 HT 1-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gil Vicente
2-1
AWAY Nacional
1.05 xG 1.62
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 7
377 Passes 273
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
23 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Gil Vicente vs Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gil Vicente squeezed past Nacional 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 29% / 32% — and on the day Gil Vicente made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gil Vicente had 56% of the ball to Nacional's 44%, shots finished 17-19, expected goals 1.05 to 1.62 — the balance of chances actually favoured Nacional.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gil Vicente had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Gil Vicente and 1.00 for Nacional.

What was the final score of Gil Vicente vs Nacional?

Gil Vicente 2-1 Nacional in the Portugal - Premier League on 07/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gil Vicente vs Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gil Vicente win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Gil Vicente 39%, draw 29%, Nacional 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gil Vicente) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gil Vicente) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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