Benfica 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 7 Dec 2024

📅07/12/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
65%
1.33
Draw
21%
4.62
Away
14%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.03
Over 2.5
48%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.13
No
57%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
25%
3.82
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
26%
3.27
6+ Goals
10%
11.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.82 — our 25% vs market 21.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1.72
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
26.5
X/1
19%
3.76
X/2
5%
20.6
X/X
7%
7.82
2/1
9%
28.0
2/2
5%
17.4
2/X
4%
27.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
65%
Home Win
71%
-5.9pp
21%
Draw
18%
+2.4pp
14%
Away Win
11%
+3.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
45%
+6.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
55%
-6.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
43%
+0.7pp
57%
BTTS No
57%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benfica EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 14%
+0% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +4%
2.80/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/1.98
+25% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / +3%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
353 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 77%
37.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.1
22.9 Crosses 12.3
1.6 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.75 xG 1.22
61% Ball Possession 39%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
444 Passes 253
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
11.02.2024 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-2 HT 1-1 Benfica Benfica POR
02.09.2023 Benfica Benfica 4-0 HT 3-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
18.03.2023 Benfica Benfica 5-1 HT 3-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
01.10.2022 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 0-0 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica POR
27.02.2022 Benfica Benfica 3-0 HT 2-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
27.10.2021 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 3-3 HT 2-3 Benfica Benfica PORLC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benfica
1-0
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
0.78 xG 0.49
55% Ball Possession 45%
8 Total Shots 10
1 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 9
367 Passes 285
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
17 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Benfica vs Vitoria Guimaraes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica edged past Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Benfica as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Benfica had 55% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes's 45%, shots finished 8-10, expected goals 0.78 to 0.49.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Benfica and 1.00 for Vitoria Guimaraes.

What was the final score of Benfica vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Benfica 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - Premier League on 07/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benfica vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Benfica 65%, draw 21%, Vitoria Guimaraes 14%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Benfica) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR More Portugal - Premier League
7 Dec 2024
18:30 Gil Vicente vs Nacional Analysis →
21:00 Santa Clara vs Rio Ave Analysis →
23:30 Famalicao vs Porto Analysis →