Vitoria Guimaraes 2-2 Benfica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 11 Feb 2024

📅11/02/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
4.13
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
46%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.03
Over 2.5
46%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.78
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.16
6+ Goals
10%
10.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.78 — our 30% vs market 21.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
7.58
1/2
8%
22.05
1/X
5%
15.4
X/1 EV+ ✗
12%
10.0
X/2
18%
3.91
X/X
11%
5.4
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
20%
2.06
2/X
9%
14.75
Value flag · X/1 at 10.0 — our 12% vs market 6.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
21%
+8.1pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.3pp
46%
Away Win
55%
-9.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
45%
+8.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
55%
-8.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.5pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Benfica EU Bookmakers 60%
-5% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -1%
1.45/1.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.70/0.88
+37% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +4%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
293 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 384 · 81%
17.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.4
19.1 Crosses 17.8
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Benfica
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.13 xG 2.02
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
279 Passes 460
78% Pass Accuracy 85%
18 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
02.09.2023 Benfica Benfica 4-0 HT 3-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
18.03.2023 Benfica Benfica 5-1 HT 3-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
01.10.2022 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 0-0 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica POR
27.02.2022 Benfica Benfica 3-0 HT 2-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
27.10.2021 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 3-3 HT 2-3 Benfica Benfica PORLC
25.09.2021 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-3 HT 0-2 Benfica Benfica POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
2-2
AWAY Benfica
2.16 xG 0.87
38% Ball Possession 62%
12 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 11
162 Passes 313
62% Pass Accuracy 74%
23 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 29
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Vitoria Guimaraes vs Benfica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria Guimaraes and Benfica shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Benfica at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Vitoria Guimaraes had 38% of the ball to Benfica's 62%, shots finished 12-6, expected goals 2.16 to 0.87.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes and 3.00 for Benfica.

What was the final score of Vitoria Guimaraes vs Benfica?

Vitoria Guimaraes 2-2 Benfica in the Portugal - Premier League on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria Guimaraes vs Benfica?

Before kick-off our model rated an Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Vitoria Guimaraes 29%, draw 25%, Benfica 46%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Benfica) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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