Rio Ave 1-0 Casa Pia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 11 Feb 2024

📅11/02/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.25
Draw
30%
2.94
Away
28%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.52
Over 2.5
41%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.06
No
51%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.24
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
5.35
6+ Goals
8%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.34
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
8%
14.0
X/1
16%
4.58
X/2
9%
6.12
X/X
15%
3.55
2/1
8%
33.5
2/2
14%
5.02
2/X
7%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
41%
+1.1pp
30%
Draw
30%
-0.1pp
28%
Away Win
29%
-0.9pp
59%
Under 2.5
62%
-2.8pp
41%
Over 2.5
38%
+2.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
44%
+4.2pp
51%
BTTS No
56%
-4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rio Ave EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Casa Pia EU Bookmakers 32%
-1% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -4%
1.12/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.28
-18% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +3%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
365 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 76%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
19.3 Crosses 17.2
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rio Ave
2W-2D-1L
AWAY Casa Pia
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 0.60
0.85 xG 0.68
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
327 Passes 314
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
13 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.09.2023 Casa Pia Casa Pia 1-1 HT 1-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
16.04.2023 Rio Ave Rio Ave 1-1 HT 0-1 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
30.10.2022 Casa Pia Casa Pia 1-0 HT 0-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
01.05.2022 Rio Ave Rio Ave 1-0 HT 1-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR2
19.12.2021 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-1 HT 0-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rio Ave
1-0
AWAY Casa Pia
0.54 xG 0.18
67% Ball Possession 33%
8 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 3
548 Passes 233
87% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Box Touches 4
33 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Rio Ave vs Casa Pia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rio Ave nicked a narrow win over Casa Pia 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Rio Ave as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

On the day, Rio Ave had 67% of the ball to Casa Pia's 33%, shots finished 8-6, expected goals 0.54 to 0.18.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Rio Ave had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Rio Ave and 0.60 for Casa Pia.

What was the final score of Rio Ave vs Casa Pia?

Rio Ave 1-0 Casa Pia in the Portugal - Premier League on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rio Ave vs Casa Pia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rio Ave win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Rio Ave 42%, draw 30%, Casa Pia 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rio Ave), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Rio Ave) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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