Famalicao 1-1 Porto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 7 Dec 2024

📅07/12/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
5.91
Draw
25%
4.34
Away
52%
1.41
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.86
Over 2.5
51%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.16
No
53%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.22
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.73
6+ Goals
11%
15.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.22 — our 27% vs market 25.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
14.55
1/2
7%
29.0
1/X
8%
25.5
X/1
9%
16.55
X/2
16%
3.71
X/X
7%
6.69
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
29%
1.9
2/X
10%
24.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
14%
+9.4pp
25%
Draw
20%
+5.1pp
52%
Away Win
66%
-14.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
50%
-1.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
50%
+1.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
42%
+5.0pp
53%
BTTS No
58%
-5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Famalicao EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Porto EU Bookmakers 71%
+8% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -10%
1.16/1.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.02/0.78
+33% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +23%
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
219 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 391 · 81%
16.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 33.1
15.4 Crosses 19.5
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Famalicao
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Porto
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.11 xG 2.58
38% Ball Possession 62%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 3
248 Passes 485
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 30
19 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 3
13.04.2024 Porto Porto 2-2 HT 1-2 Famalicao Famalicao POR
02.12.2023 Famalicao Famalicao 0-3 HT 0-2 Porto Porto POR
20.05.2023 Famalicao Famalicao 2-4 HT 2-2 Porto Porto POR
04.05.2023 Porto Porto 3-2 HT 1-1 Famalicao Famalicao POK
26.04.2023 Famalicao Famalicao 1-2 HT 1-1 Porto Porto POK
15.01.2023 Porto Porto 4-1 HT 3-0 Famalicao Famalicao POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Famalicao
1-1
AWAY Porto
1.10 xG 0.88
31% Ball Possession 69%
3 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
164 Passes 450
67% Pass Accuracy 86%
5 Box Touches 39
5 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Famalicao vs Porto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Famalicao and Porto shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Porto at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Famalicao had 31% of the ball to Porto's 69%, shots finished 3-16, expected goals 1.10 to 0.88.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Famalicao and 3.00 for Porto.

What was the final score of Famalicao vs Porto?

Famalicao 1-1 Porto in the Portugal - Premier League on 07/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Famalicao vs Porto?

Before kick-off our model rated an Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Famalicao 23%, draw 25%, Porto 52%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Porto) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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