Estrela vs Arouca Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Estrela v Arouca — Team-Based Signals
Estrela vs Arouca Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings
Estrela 2-1 Arouca — Actual Match Statistics
Estrela edged past Arouca 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 23% / 39% — and on the day Estrela made the difference.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
On the day, Estrela had 46% of the ball to Arouca's 54%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 1.07 to 1.11.
For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Arouca led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Estrela and 2.00 for Arouca.
What was the final score of Estrela vs Arouca?
Estrela 2-1 Arouca in the Portugal - Premier League on 09/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Estrela vs Arouca?
Before kick-off our model rated an Arouca win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Estrela 38%, draw 23%, Arouca 39%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.