Beitar Jerusalem 1-1 Ashdod — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Israel - Ligat HaAl, 8 Jan 2024

📅08/01/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.8
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
33%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.91
Over 2.5
46%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.76
No
53%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.37
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.29
6+ Goals
8%
12.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.37 — our 30% vs market 23.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
15%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
51%
-11.1pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.9pp
33%
Away Win
24%
+9.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.5pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Beitar Jerusalem EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Ashdod EU Bookmakers 28%
+22% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
1.67/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.66/0.80
+27% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +46%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
370 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 74%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.0
16.4 Crosses 19.4
1.7 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Beitar Jerusalem
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Ashdod
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.15 xG 1.01
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 6
409 Passes 463
85% Pass Accuracy 88%
20 Box Touches 29
6 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 5
04.09.2023 Ashdod Ashdod 1-2 HT 1-1 Beitar Jerusalem Beitar Jerusalem İSR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Beitar Jerusalem
1-1
AWAY Ashdod
1.50 xG 1.49
60% Ball Possession 40%
9 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 2
460 Passes 289
87% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 15
23 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Beitar Jerusalem vs Ashdod
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Beitar Jerusalem and Ashdod couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 27% / 33% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Beitar Jerusalem had 60% of the ball to Ashdod's 40%, shots finished 9-14, expected goals 1.50 to 1.49.

What was the final score of Beitar Jerusalem vs Ashdod?

Beitar Jerusalem 1-1 Ashdod in the Israel - Ligat HaAl on 08/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Beitar Jerusalem vs Ashdod?

Before kick-off our model rated a Beitar Jerusalem win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Beitar Jerusalem 40%, draw 27%, Ashdod 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Beitar Jerusalem), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Beitar Jerusalem) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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