Envigado 1-2 Alianza Petrolera — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 8 Feb 2024

📅08/02/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.05
Draw
31%
3.28
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.68
Over 2.5
41%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
14%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
45%
-4.9pp
31%
Draw
27%
+3.8pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+1.1pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.7pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.9pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Envigado EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Alianza Petrolera EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +7%
1.20/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.34
-5% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +23%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
305 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 75%
15.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.4
16.5 Crosses 12.1
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Envigado
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Alianza Petrolera
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.32 xG 1.24
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
278 Passes 290
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
11.08.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 3-1 HT 1-0 Envigado Envigado KOL
18.02.2023 Envigado Envigado 0-0 HT 0-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
17.07.2022 Envigado Envigado 2-2 HT 1-2 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
31.01.2022 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 2-2 HT 2-0 Envigado Envigado KOL
14.08.2021 Envigado Envigado 2-1 HT 0-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
17.04.2021 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 1-1 HT 0-0 Envigado Envigado KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Envigado
1-2
AWAY Alianza Petrolera
1.97 xG 0.82
60% Ball Possession 40%
25 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 3
326 Passes 186
82% Pass Accuracy 70%
30 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Envigado vs Alianza Petrolera
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alianza Petrolera edged past Envigado 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 31% / 29% — and on the day Alianza Petrolera made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Envigado had 60% of the ball to Alianza Petrolera's 40%, shots finished 25-15, expected goals 1.97 to 0.82 — the balance of chances actually favoured Envigado.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Envigado and 1.50 for Alianza Petrolera.

What was the final score of Envigado vs Alianza Petrolera?

Envigado 1-2 Alianza Petrolera in the Colombia - Primera on 08/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Envigado vs Alianza Petrolera?

Before kick-off our model rated a Envigado win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Envigado 40%, draw 31%, Alianza Petrolera 29%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Envigado) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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